SARAH FERGUSON, PRESENTER: Malcolm Turnbull, welcome to 7.30
MALCOLM TURNBULL, FORMER PRIME MINISTER: Great to be with you.
SARAH FERGUSON: You persuaded President Trump not to proceed with tariffs against Australia during his first term. Can Australia get the same deal again?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, I hope we can. I hope we can. I mean, the circumstances are similar, but different, so we'll depend on the advocacy of the government, the Australian Government, and also, we know what Trump is trying to achieve.
I mean, it may be that the tariffs he's planning to propose are going to be on every single country with no exemptions available whatsoever. So, we just don't know.
As with most things with Donald Trump, it's hard to predict.
SARAH FERGUSON: Now, do you think that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has what it takes to succeed in a negotiation with Donald Trump?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, look, I don't want to run a commentary on Anthony Albanese’s powers as a persuasive advocate, or Peter Dutton's for that matter.
But you know, Sarah, I know people are trying to set Albanese up to fail here, let's be honest. It may be that the, this Trump is determined to impose this tariff on every country, no matter what, and you know, and in which case, it won't be possible to secure an exemption.
All the Australian Prime Minister can do is use all of his advocacy skills and play a straight bat and defend the Australian national interest.
But do not be misled by the idea that there's any altruism in Washington towards Australia. The United States Government, especially with Donald Trump, acts in the national interest of the United States. What is his slogan, 'America First'. So, we've got to be able to make the case that it's against their interest to impose tariffs on us.
And we have to be, if we want to be respected, we have to stand up. And there is a tendency, particularly in parts of the media in Australia, to sort of encourage Australian leaders to be sycophantic to the Americans. I mean, it's exactly the 180-degree reverse of what we should be doing.
If we've got to win their respect, you win their respect by being true to yourself.
SARAH FERGUSON: There were members of the Trump administration, some who are still there, others who are still influential who were very opposed to the deal that you got from Donald Trump. Will those be those people be determined to expunge the weakness that was shown towards Australia as they see it?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, it may be, I mean, Lighthizer and Navarro were, who are still either in the administration or very influential, were very much opposed to the exemption but more importantly, there were people in the administration who were, if you like, the economic rationalists that was arguing against Trump's high tariff policy.
There doesn't seem to be anybody of that frame of mind in the American administration today.
I mean, I think the big difference is that Trump has now got a team that clearly reflects to, reflects his view of the world. He's always had this mercantilist view of trade. He doesn't believe in comparative advantage. He believes if a country has a deficit, it's a trade deficit, it's a loser. If it has a trade surplus, it's a winner.
I mean, it's, it's economic nonsense, obviously, and that's, but he's believed it, and he's believed it for decades. So, you know, and he's now surrounded by people who will support him.
SARAH FERGUSON: What are the consequences for Australia if these tariffs, this second time round, if they are to go ahead?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, look, the economic consequences are not enormous. I mean, it would be, you know, we do not export a huge amount of steel to the United States, and we don't export a huge amount of aluminium in the context of global aluminium and steel trade.
But look, it would, it would, it would potentially threaten jobs in Australia. Yes, there's no doubt about that, particularly with steel, but it is a long way from being our biggest export. I mean, I think the, the point I was really making to Trump, if your argument is you want to have fair and reciprocal trade, you cannot have a fairer trade deal than you have with Australia, because you have a big surplus, no tariffs, no quotas.
So if you impose a tariff on us, you're only doing it because you can, because you're powerful, and that is not the message you want to be sending to the rest of the world.
Now, that argument had some currency in 2017, and '18, but today, after you see what he did with Canada and Mexico, you know, Trump basically is saying might is right.
I mean, this is, you know, this is a very different American president and in fact, he's more determined, and if you like, more true to himself than he was in his first administration.
SARAH FERGUSON: So as you suggest that those lines of persuasion that you use the first time may not have as much power. What possible retaliatory measures could Australia bring to bear on the debate if that is no longer persuasive?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, we should, we should think very seriously about the payments that we're making to support their submarine industrial base. You know, we're sending them $US3 billion to support their sort of languishing submarine industry with no guarantee that will get any submarines at all.
SARAH FERGUSON: At the same time, given that that is, as you say, a very good deal at the moment for the US, there's not a lot of power in that stick to use against the administration.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, there would be if we said we're not going to go ahead with it, or we're going to reduce the payments. I mean, the, you know, it is, you can imagine, look, you we all know. I mean, Trump's like an open book, right? We know how he thinks. He despises losers. He despises people who do stupid, weak deals. He despises weakness. He's a bully.
The AUKUS deal we did with the Americans is so hopelessly one sided in favour of the Americans. It's not something that would win us any respect in Washington, let alone from Trump.
We have to toughen up and start defending our own national interest. Now I did that. I think Albanese, or Dutton, if he wins the election, will have to do that but it would be a change. Most, most Australian Prime Ministers who go to Washington are so anxious about, you know, winning the affection, so they imagine that the Americans, they forget that in the imperial capital, they regard deference as their due.
So going there and sucking up is a waste of time.
SARAH FERGUSON: Malcolm Turnbull, a different era, maybe a different Trump. We'll wait and see what happens next. Thank you very much indeed for joining us.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Thank you.
Watch the interview here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-10/malcolm-turnbull-speaks-on-how-to-negotiate-with-donald-trump/104920744
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