TRANSCRIPT: Interview with Haidi Stroud-Watts Bloomberg 10/3/2025
Watch the interview here https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-03-10/trump-chaos-a-gift-to-china-former-australia-pm-says-video
JOURNALIST: of course you've had experience dealing with President Trump in the first iteration, his return to office, has it been a month and a half? seems very chaotic. Do you think it's been more chaotic, less chaotic? Do you think it will get more uncertain?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: well, who knows? I mean that it has been, you've had tariffs going on, going off, going back on again, and this uncertainty, as you know better than anyone at Bloomberg, it's hitting the markets too. I mean, it's bad for business. I would say this time he's more determined. He's got a team that is totally on board with him. He is surrounded by ‘yes men’ supporters. And the first Trump administration, he didn't really expect to win. He wasn't really prepared. He hired a lot of people that were not from his camp or his MAGA movement, and they were trying to steer him in more conventional directions, but he hasn’t got that restraint now. So you're seeing a much more undiluted Donald Trump second time around.
JOURNALIST: A clearer mandate perhaps, if you will this time.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Yeah, sure he’s got a mandate, but I don't think Americans will feel that happy if inflation starts to go up or they go into recession. There's a lot of people very pessimistic about the consequences of his policies. I mean, if this triggers a global wave of protectionism around the world, that's clearly going to be bad for business everywhere. Trump seems to have a view that America can prosper at the expense of everybody else, but that's not going to work. That's why they tried that at the time of the Depression with the Smoot-Hawley legislation, which only made the depression worse.
JOURNALIST: It's always difficult for Australia, of course, given the huge economic dependence on China and the huge security alliance with the US. I mean, the administration has ripped up the playbook when it comes to Europe, for example, whether it's doing with Ukraine. What's the best way that Australia can manoeuvre this?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, look, we are by no means as economically dependent on America as, for example, Canada is. We actually have a trade deficit with the United States, something that Trump appreciates. He likes having a surplus. The big risk to us is not so much tariffs on Australian exports like steel and aluminium, but rather a slowdown in the global economy. In particular the Chinese economy, which is the destination for much of our exports. In terms of how do we handle it? Look, I think we're not going to change Trump, but what does this mean? It means we have to look at all of our defence and security relationships with a fresh eye. We have to be more self-reliant. We have to assess how we can defend ourselves. We cannot count on the Americans supporting us in the way we have before. It would be naive to do that.
I mean, look at what they've been doing with the Europeans. Why do we think we are more beloved or more important to the Americans than the Europeans are? I mean, people have said to me, ‘oh, the Americans have got military personnel based here. They've got tens of thousands of military, but people in bases in Europe, and yet they've basically walked away from the Europeans, particularly over Ukraine. Look at the way he's cut military aids, suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine, thereby advantaging Vladimir Putin on the battlefield. When Putin ramped up his attacks on Ukraine in the last 48 hours, Trump said, ‘oh, well, that's just what you'd expect him to do as though that's completely Okay’. So this is a very different United States. Trump does not subscribe to the same values that we have in the past shared with America. Look, he doesn't have a commitment to the international rule of law that's obvious. Doesn't care about treaties or alliances. He’s got a free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, which he entered into by the way. He signed it, then he's just walked away from that. So I think we have got to work out how we are going to defend ourselves and how we will pursue a more independent, independent of the United States approach to international and security affairs.
JOURNALIST: That sounds like you don't expect an exemption for tariffs for Australia.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Look, I think, I mean I secured one back in 2018, but I think it's going to be a lot harder this time. And the reason is that I think they will, Trump will be being told, and I suspect he'll conclude himself, that you give one country an exemption, then you have to give another and another. And before long there are too many exemptions and you haven't got much of a tariff. So I suspect it will be on everybody. Australia does have a couple of things going for it. They're really exactly the same arguments. I mean, it's a case of rinse and repeat. The government is using exactly the same arguments I used in 2018, namely that Trump has a surplus with Australia. He's got a free trade deal with Australia. There's no tariffs or barriers to American trade or investment with this country. And a steel tariff, in particular, will only put up the price of roofing materials in California and it won't result in any additional American steel production. And to give Trump credit, I went through all of this in great detail with him and I've set it all out in my memoir, if anyone's interested in it, it's all there. But the argument…
JOURNALIST: Is he right in saying that the promise on aluminium export volumes was broken.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, I didn't give that promise. Okay, so aluminium was barely mentioned in my time. All the focus was on steel. Aluminium was just a footnote because the tariff was only 10% at that time. But apparently when Morrison was prime minister, the Americans had noticed aluminium exports from Australia were increasing and Scott gave some kind of undertaking that they wouldn't increase. That's what said, I wasn't there obviously, but it certainly wasn't an undertaking that was given in my time.
JOURNALIST: I wanted to get your view on the live fire drills from Chinese military and the Tasman Sea. Of course, the huge amount of concern over Chinese warships as well. What's your view on this in terms of the way that we sort of navigate this with Beijing?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, look, China's perfectly entitled to sail their naval vessels wherever they like. They're in international waters, they're entitled to have a live fire drill that it would've been much more polite to give more notice, and the Australian government has protested about that. But I think what's the purpose of it? Well, it's a show of strength. I mean, China is a giant economy. Its economy has grown, its military has grown in line with the size of its economy, and it has a blue water navy, and it is showing its strength that its navy sails all around the world. And so this shouldn't come as a surprise to us or an affront. This is something we've go to take into account and it underlines why we have to be able to defend ourselves.
JOURNALIST: And I know you've had conversations with the presidency in the past, and this feels like an opportunity for Beijing to sort of step up in the new global world order. Where does Australia fit in terms of that relationship with China?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, look, I know we had a difficult period a few years ago, but I think our relationship with China is much improved now. There was an unfortunate period where China overreached, frankly, and they engaged in economic coercion of Australia, and you had all of the bans on Australian exports to China. That was a mistake and it didn't work, backfired, and it's been rolled back. So that's good. We should have a mutually respectful relationship. I think China will take advantage, massive advantage of Trump. What my prediction will be that Xi will aim to be the exact opposite of Trump, where Trump is chaotic, he will be consistent. Where Trump is rude and abusive, he'll be respectful. Where Trump is erratic, he will be consistent. And what that will do is build trust with countries, and there'll be many countries who will, looking at China on the one hand and Trump on the other, will find China a more attractive partner.
So Trump is not just helping Vladimir Putin on the battlefield in Ukraine, which is bad enough, but by his own conduct, he's providing an opportunity for China this time to take a different approach than the one they did with Trump 1. And really, as I said, they should be the anti-Trump. I mean, they don't have to be against him, they just have to be the opposite of him in terms of style and the way of dealing with people. Do you know what I mean? The way Trump looks at the moment is, and this is every commentator, leaders all around the world are making the same point. It appears that the more dependent you are on the United States, the closer you are to the United States, the more he feels he can extract value from you, stand over you, extort you. I mean, look at the business with Greenland. I mean, is this Denmark's reward for supporting the Americans in Afghanistan? Is that their reward? To have their prime minister rung up and told that her country has to cede one of its territories? I mean, is this Canada's reward for decades of solidarity and alliance, that they should be told they're just the 51st state and be threatened with tariffs that are going to send the country into a recession? This is not, yes, he is the president of the United States, but that is really the only thing he's got in common with his predecessors. This is a very different America led by a very different president.
JOURNALIST: I wanted to ask about your views on the economy and confidence here in Australia. Some of the indicators are starting to turn around, and I do wonder though, in terms of the sort of structural reforms, policy innovations we've seen China, for example, really looking to revive the private sector tech innovation. Is Australia missing that sort of impetus as we head into the selection?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, I mean the tech sector is very strong in Australia. If you go back 30 years, when I first got involved in the tech sector as a venture capitalist, there was no venture capital here. Now, and in my own government, the National Innovation and Science Agenda in 2015 gave a lot of impetus to investment in tech and innovation generally. And I think the sector is healthy, but what government should be doing is staying close to that sector and making sure that they're providing the support and incentives that will continue to drive it along. Because innovation is the key. I mean, innovation is the key to productivity. That is how you stay ahead of the pack.
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