In Washington this Thursday 24 July before the Senate Armed Services Committee the incoming Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Daryl L Caudle, made it clear that the delivery pace of Virginia submarines by US industry would not allow the transfer of any to Australia under AUKUS Pillar One and that in order to do so the US shipbuilding industry would need, not just improvements in efficiency, but a “transformational improvement” to more than double current production rates.
He said several times in his testimony he would support and assist the current Defence Department review of AUKUS which he clearly links to this central question of the capacity of the US Navy to spare Virginias.
Meanwhile in Canberra - nobody noticed. Our parliament whose nation has the most at risk in AUKUS is the least curious and the least informed.
Despite it being our nation’s largest single defence commitment, despite it’s cost draining resources needed for other defence requirements including maintenance of our Navy’s surface fleet, AUKUS remains almost entirely without scrutiny or accountability within the Australian political system.
At no time has our Government, its ministers, officials or service chiefs, acknowledged that there is a very real risk that Australia will not be able to purchase Virginia Class submarines from the US Navy and therefore, as a consequence, our Royal Australian Navy is likely to be without any serviceable submarines for well over a decade and perhaps longer depending on when the yet to be designed SSN AUKUS boats are built and delivered.
First, the deal with the Americans was misrepresented as being one where the US was obliged to sell Australia Virginia Class submarines and gullible Australian media wrote breathless puff pieces in anticipation of when the Virginias would arrive beginning in 2032. Our Defence Minister, Richard Marles, proudly announced he was handing over the first installment of USD3 billion as a contribution to support the American submarine industrial base.
Little or no attention was given to the fact that the United States’ own AUKUS legislation makes it clear that no submarine can be transferred unless the US President at the time certifies the transfer would not degrade the underwater capabilities of the US Navy. Even less attention was given to the fact that in order to be able to give the certificate the US submarine industrial base would need to be producing 2.3 Virginia Class submarines a year whereas at the moment it is producing 1.1 a year and has never been able to produce the 2 a year that are need for the US Navy’s own requirements.
When asked what our Plan B was if the Virginias did not arrive, the glassy eyed response was “They will arrive.” Anybody, like myself, who pointed to these real risks and facts behind them was accused of being an AUKUS critic.
Well, while a glee club, happy talk delusion surrounds AUKUS in Canberra, thankfully in Washington there is a much more clear eyed acknowledgement of the risks. In March, the US Navy testified to Congress that the rate of Virginia production had, in fact, dipped down from 1.2 per year to 1.1 per year - the objective of reaching 2 per year by 2028 looked more and more improbably.
Then about six weeks ago the notoriously clear eyed Undersecretary for Defence Policy, Elbridge Colby, was tasked to review the AUKUS programme. Colby, prior to taking office, had publicly expressed his scepticism about the ability of the US Navy to spare any Virginias for the Australians when the US Navy was already about 20 attack submarines short of what it needs and its industry was producing about half as many as it needs just to replace retirements of older boats.
And now this past Thursday, 24 July, Admiral Daryl L Caudle testified before the Armed Services Committee of the US Senate as part of his confirmation process.
Senator Tim Kaine asked him specifically about AUKUS:
SEN KAINE I am a big supporter of AUKUS. What’s your assessment of AUKUS‘s progress and what can Congress do to help keep it on track.
ADM Caudle: Senator there is no question Australia fields incredible submariners. They have served on submarines with me personally for decades. I am personal friends with the chief of staff the Navy there, Mark Hammond, and he and I are good friends for a long time so the question of Australia’s ability to conduct undersea warfare is not in question by me or anyone, but as you know the delivery pace is not what it needs to be to make good on the Pillar One of the AUKUS agreement which is currently under review by our defence department. So I think rightly so, we have to understand whether or not the industrial base can produce the submarines required so that we can make good on the actual pact that we made with the UK and Australia which is as you know around 2.2 to 2.3 Virginia class submarines per year. That is going to require a transformational improvement; not a 10% improvement, not a 20% improvement but a 100% improvement.
Chairman WICKER: We need to do that, don’t we Admiral? We need that transformational improvement.
ADM Caudle. Absolutely chairman. We need a transformational improvement and the ability to deliver twice the capacity
Chairman WICKER: So if I can follow in on what the Senator asked, we need to quickly and resolutely get to where we need to be to fulfill our Pillar One obligations and then move onto Pillar Two. Is that your assessment?
ADM Caudle: Yes. With Pillar Two we need to have that on steroids already The technology transfers and the things we are doing with artificial intelligence and cyber and undersea unmanned vehicles - all those types of things that we can collaborate with our great partners the United Kingdom and Australia needs to be working in parallel but in parallel we need to transformationally improve the output of the two yards that are producing our Virginia class submarines. There needs to be some creativity, some ingenuity, some outsourcing improvements. Stop the attrition levels that are currently there today at those 2 yards and so we need an all hands on deck approach to this to get to the 2.3 submarines per year.
Later in his testimony in response to questions from Senator Peters, Admiral Caudle repeats the needs for a dramatic, transformational change to naval shipbuilding including the construction of new shipyards saying:
“I am worried that we just don’t have the capacity with just efficiency increases alone to deliver the 2.3 [Virginias per year] that is needed by our nation.”
FIRST POSTED ON SUBSTACK: https://malcolmturnbull.substack.com/p/admiral-caudle-clear-eyed-on-aukus
YOU CAN WATCH THE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE HEARING HERE: https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/to-consider-the-nomination-of-admiral-daryl-l-caudle-usn-for-reappointment-to-the-grade-of-admiral-and_to-be-chief-of-naval-operations
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