In a special two-part episode, Foreign Affairs Editor Dan Kurtz-Phelan speaks with two policymakers who have grappled directly with the disruption that may come in Trump 2.0. Malcolm Turnbull, who was Australia’s prime minister during Trump’s first term, shares his lessons about how leaders can most effectively engage the new administration. And Bilahari Kausikan, one of Singapore’s most seasoned diplomats and analysts, considers what Trump’s return will mean for Asia.
Together, these conversations offer a window into how global leaders are approaching a period of potential turmoil—and provide an unvarnished guide to power politics in an era of American disruption.
The full episode is available here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-will-the-world-navigate-trumps-return/id1623855270?i=1000684219950
Malcolm Turnbull: "As I said in that piece, the last time Trump was elected there were two big misapprehensions that were almost universally made. The first was that he would be different in office than he was on the campaign trail and everyone made that mistake. Xi Jinping said to me that he thought the administrative system would institutionalise him and the wild rhetoric on the campaign trail would not be reflected in government. Well, of course it was and in some respects it got even wilder. So I don’t think anyone will make that mistake again. The second mistake that was widely made and I think will be made again and is being made again, is that the way to deal with Trump is to suck up to him, and just lavish him with flattery and sycophancy and so forth. And that is a major mistake because the only people he respects are the people that stand up to him. He’s a classic sort of bullying narcissistic personality. That’s like saying the Pope is a Catholic, it’s pretty obvious. The reality is if you suck up to bullies and grovel to bullies, all you’ll get is more bullying. So this mistake has been made again and in spades. The cavalcade of supplicants going to Mar-a-Lago to bend the knee and kiss the ring of Donald Trump is quite a sight to behold….
Malcolm Turnbull: “I had never dealt with Trump in business but I knew a lot of people that had and I knew his type which is the big bullying billionaire, you know thinks he’s got the answer to everything, filled with self-confidence, and it's a type. And I’ve worked with and against many people like that in my business career so my first sort of run in with Trump was pretty early…..”
Malcolm Turnbull: “The important thing was that by having this row and standing up to him, I won his respect and we got on very well after that. And the next meeting we had was cordial and we had some very constructive discussions. I was able to persuade him not to impose tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium and that was a very rational, transactional discussion. We had a lot of discussions about trade, and I was able to point out to him that America had the best deal with Australia possible. We have a free trade agreement with America, they have no tariffs, no quotas, no barriers to investment, and they have a big surplus so they literally could not get a better trade deal with Australia. You literally could not improve it. So in those circumstances putting tariffs on our exports to the US is just completely self-defeating from America’s point of view. By the time I became Prime Minister I was 60, and I was 50 when I went into Parliament. I'd been a businessman, a partner of Goldman Sachs and so forth, so I had something in common with Trump I suppose. But the bottom line is, the fundamental thing is: that if you want to have a productive relationship with Trump you need to win his respect and you’re not gonna win his respect by just being another sycophant. He’s surrounded by them. See if you’re a foreign leader you can’t be sacked but if you’re working in the Trump White House, if you’re being insufficiently solicitous, I suppose he can sack you. But if you’re the leader of foreign country he can’t do that. Although he may get Elon Musk to try to medal in your affairs like he is meddling in the political affairs of Germany and the UK at the moment.”
Malcolm Turnbull: “I like Shinzo and knew him very well and worked very well with him. I think Trump treated him pretty badly, disrespectfully often. I don’t know that he got much out of Trump. He was very anxious about offending Trump. For example when Trump pulled out of the Trans Pacific Partnership, which he said he would do in the campaign so came as no surprise, I believed that we should continue with it without the United States. So the key country to persuade to do that was obviously Japan because once the US was out, Japan was the largest remaining economy amongst the 11 countries that were left. Abe was very concerned that it would upset Trump or offend Trump, he was really anxious about that. And I was able to persuade him, I said ‘look it’s a case of out of the room out of the deal’, you know the Americans have stepped out of it they can’t complain if we keep going with the deal. And frankly if we keep the deal alive, and we did, it's now called the CPTPP, it's up and running and has been for some years, and the UK has recently joined, that the Americans will always effectively have an option to rejoin it at some point if they want it. Where as if we’d just done nothing for six months, it would’ve just been a pile of papers in a lawyer’s office”.
Malcolm Turnbull: “I’m not quite sure why people regard Abe’s relationship as being [effective]. It depends what you’re trying to achieve. If your political objective as a foreign leader is to have an affable backslapping, mutually complementary sort of relationship, well I guess flattery and golf and all that stuff helps. But if you actually want to get things done, and if you want to protect your interests, then you’ve got to basically win his respect and you’ve got to be able to stand your ground. I mean Japan was hit with those steel tariffs, and they export a lot more steel than we do, so with great respect I don’t think there’s any evidence that that flattery approach [works]. I mean, there’s obviously always a degree of flattery. Every diplomatic relationship involves some courtesies, but if you're only objective is to not upset Donald Trump then that means he will do what he wants and get what he wants rather than what you want”.
Malcolm Turnbull: "Well the first thing I’d say is that these kinds of threats are hugely damaging to the United States and to the world. We are saying Xi Jinping you must not use force to incorporate Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China. And Trump’s administration is full of people to whom that is a very important objective. We’re saying to Putin you have no right to try to seize Ukraine and your invasion is wrong, and illegal and criminal, and all those things. If at the same time the United States president or president-elect is saying: I won’t rule out using military force to seize Greenland and the Panama Canal, well I mean essentially what that is saying is "might is right". So you’re in a position where Xi Jinping can say, well hang on Greenland has never been part of the United States, there is no connection there. Taiwan has been a part of China in the past. Xi Jinping would say: China the PRC he has a much more legitimate claim vis-à-vis Taiwan than the United States has vis-à-vis Greenland, let alone the Panama Canal. Shinzo had a policy, which we all agreed with, which was really a slogan, “the free and open Indo-Pacific”. That was about asserting that might should not be right".
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