ABC RADIO NATIONAL WITH PATRICIA KARVELAS
TRANSCRIPT 7/11/2024
PATRICIA KARVELAS: If Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is wondering how to deal with the 47th President of the United States there are two predecessors he could ask: Scott Morrison and Malcolm Turnbull. Malcolm Turnbull joins me from Washington DC, welcome.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Thank you very much.
PATRICIA KARVELAS: You say another Trump Presidency would require robust conversations from Australian politicians. What should they be doing and saying?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well look, the Australian Prime Minister has to stand up for Australia and not follow the conventional approach which is being urged from everyone which is to suck up to Trump and be utterly differential. I had a very successful relationship with Trump because I stood up to him, stood my ground, incurred his wroth, won his respect and then got very good outcomes for Australia. But that does require some determination and some courage perhaps, but you’ve got to be forthright. Trump is a very strong character. He’s unconventional in the sense that the only real decision maker in his White House was, and will be, himself. And so you can have very good Ambassadors and very good officials, and have very good discussions with advisors, but ultimately, the deals are going to be done between the Australian Prime Minister and the American President. And so that personal relationship has got to be one grounded in respect. And what Trump respects is strength. So, if you suck up to Trump you'll just have to do more sucking up.
PATRICIA KARVELAS: Okay, so far I mean we’ve only had statements really so far. Are you getting the vibe of a sucking up kind of response?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: No. Every leader in the world has offered their congratulations. I’m not suggesting that. You can be thoroughly courteous and polite and convivial and generous, but you have to be prepared to advance your own interests as an Australian Prime Minister. And there will be circumstances and situations as there was on the refugee deal, as there was on tariffs, where our interests were very different to American policy or American intentions. We had to persuade them to take a different approach, and we succeeded in doing so.
PATRICIA KARVELAS: This victory looks pretty emphatic for Donald Trump. You were warning in the lead up to the US election that he was a unique threat to democracy. How do you see it now?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, I don’t know that I used exactly those terms.
PATRICIA KARVELAS: I’m paraphrasing, you may have used stronger terms.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Okay, let’s not quibble. He did sort of encourage a mob to try to overthrow the peaceful transfer of power in 2021, on January 6. Trump is not committed to democracy or the rule of law in the way previous presidents have been, or in the way perhaps most people are. But the American people understand that, they recognise that, they have elected Trump. They have as the New York Times said very pithily in a headline: ‘America has chosen a strong man’. And so Trump as the strong bully, that's what people have hired. So this is not a fluke or a case of electing somebody who turns out to be different to what you know. This is a guy who says the quiet bits out loud.
PATRICIA KARVELAS: And people seem to like it. Some people seem to like it.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, the majority did so that’s why he’ll be the next President.
PATRICIA KARVELAS: That's right. Will Australia ever get submarines now?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: No I don’t think we’ll ever get any Virginia class submarines and I don’t think that’s really got anything to do with Trump. The bottom line is this: the American Navy is at least 17 Virginia class submarines (SSN’s) short of what they say and they believe they need. Their industry is producing about half as many every year as they want to acquire, so they’re massively short of this most strategic and survival asset. The legislation which authorises America to sell Virginia class submarines to Australia says that before doing so, the president has to certify that the US Navy’s underwater capabilities would not be diminished by the sale. In other words: they’re surplus to the US Navy requirements. I don’t see how an American President could do that, and in an age of ‘America First’ we’ve got to recognise that the most likely outcome is going to be that they will say quite honestly and consistently with the deal, look you know we love you like a brother but we need these subs, we’re short of them already and we can’t spare them. This is why I say the deal Morrison instigated and Albanese signed up to is a very very asymmetrical deal. All of the risk is on Australia. We have no agency and no leverage over this, and that’s why I think the most likely outcome is we will end up with no submarines. And that will be entirely our own fault because we signed up to a dud deal. And I can tell you of all the people I know, the one least like to sympathise with someone who signed up to a dud deal is Donald Trump.
PATRICIA KARVELAS: Interesting point. Where is Donald Trump going to lead the world on climate policy, and what are the implications for Australia if he pulls out of Paris?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well he will pull out of Paris. It’s bad, it’s clearly very bad to have America pulling back from the Paris agreement. Having said that, there is a lot of momentum in the move towards reducing emissions and particularly in the move to clean energy. Australia nuclear fantasies aside, the cheapest form of new generation of electricity is, by a country mile, renewables, particularly solar. So I think in most countries this move to renewables is going to be driven by economics. Now there was a time when I was first Environment Minister years ago when we used to talk about how much are we prepared to spend to save the planet, to afford solar panels etc? Now, those renewables are the cheapest form of new generation. But there is no question Trump’s election is not good for those who believe in climate action like myself. And he’s again said the quiet bit out loud. What has he said one of his Day One agendas is, apart from ending the war in Ukraine? Drill baby, drill. There it is. It’s on the tin.
PATRICIA KARVELAS: It’s on the tin. He’s been very upfront about it. Do you see Donald Trump's election win having any implications for Australian politics? Niki Savva has written a really interesting column this morning suggesting that this is now the Liberal Party’s playbook in terms of the issues that we saw his victory premised on for the Liberals here.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well I think there will be some. Everyone spends so much time watching American politics and of course the Liberal Party will be influenced by it as will the Labor party. Everyone will take lessons from it. I think Dutton’s approach will be to project himself as a Trump-like strong man and present Albanese, as he’s seeking to do, as weak. And he will be making the same case Trump did, which is in difficult times you need a strong man. It may not be somebody you like, or are fond of, or even particularly respect, but you’re better off having a strong person in the top job. I think that's what he’ll seek to do. And of course he’ll run on many of these culture war issues. But you’ve gotta remember, Australia is different to the United States. Us and your listeners know that. I think we are a more centred, dare I say more sober and sort of rational electorate. And of course because we have compulsory voting and preferential voting, politics tends to get mediated more at the centre. So, rushing off to the Trumpiest extreme could be just the thing that you need to do to get more Teals elected. So Mr Dutton’s got think very carefully about that.
Audio available on ABC Listen: Malcolm Turnbull gives insight on dealing with Donald Trump - ABC listen
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