Newsletters

Welcome to the March edition of Wentworth News.

In this newsletter I have details of my new Electorate Office in Bondi Junction, Clean Up Australia Day, a campaign to secure the old Bondi Police Station for WAYS Youth Service, and news of new Federal funding for a local school and to eliminate black spots on our local roads.

 

The newsletter also includes:

Links to recent speeches in Parliament on Broadcasting policy  and  Telecommunications;

Reserve Bank Governor's testimony to the House of Representatives Economics Committee;

Some thoughts on the recent rise in Interest Rates;
Inquiries  on Sustainable Cities and harmonisation of laws;

Ministerial Visits;
Discussion of tax reform;
A meeting with the Israeli President, Moshe Katsav ;

A speech by Israeli General Amos Yadlin and some new downloads on light rail and care costs .
 

Inquiries
During the last month, I have been busy both in
Canberra and at home in Wentworth. The House of Representatives Standing Committee on the Environment is continuing its inquiry into Sustainable Cities . The House Standing Committee on Legal and Constitutional Affairs is conducting an inquiry into harmonisation of laws between the various Australian jurisdictions. Submissions are invited and details of the inquiry are here .

 

Reserve Bank Testimony
The House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics heard the bi-annual testimony from the Governor of the Reserve Bank,
Mr Ian MacFarlane. He defended (without confirming) his much anticipated plans to raise interest rates. A number of Wentworth schools attended the hearing including Waverley College, Randwick Boys High School, Cranbrook Kambala and Emanuel.

 

The schools submitted questions and I think the best question of the whole session was from Cranbrook and Kambala.  

 

"Given that the Reserve Bank has a chartered commitment to full employment, can an unemployment rate of 5.1 per cent be considered full employment? Will the Australian economy ever be able to return to the unemployment rate of around two per cent, as it was in the 1970s?"

 

The Governor's answer (and the rest of the testimony) is here.  More discussion of his testimony is made below in the section on interest rates.

 

Interest Rates
The Reserve Bank increased interest rates by one quarter of a per cent this week. The press has been full of gloom and hysteria which is completely out of proportion to the real nature of the econmic events we are experiencing.


The facts are that  interest rates remain low by historic standards and are still much lower than they were under Labor. We have record employment and record job growth. Yes, the current account deficit (CAD) is a concern, but there are big differences between the CAD today and under Labor.

 

First, the Federal Government is not a contributor to the problem. Our Government debt is amongst the lowest in the OECD at 2.9% of GDP. The OECD average is 50.6% of GDP.  Second, the vast bulk of the borrowings from abroad have been sourced by Australian banks and are either denominated in or  hedged into Australian dollars and lent onto Australians for their own purposes, mostly investing in real estate. The foreign exchange risk is being taken by the (foreign) lenders. As a consequence there is not the same risk of a foreign exchange crises. (The Reserve Bank Governor commented on this point in the testimony referred to above). Finally, while a CAD at this level is not likely to be sustainable over a long period, it is in large measure a consequence of two factors beyond our control. They are the drought which has depressed rural exports, and the decline of the US Dollar which has, as a consequence, caused a rise in the Australian dollar.

 

The economic prospects for Australia remain promising. The world economy continues to enjoy strong growth; ensuring continuing demand for our exports, particularly resources. Our terms of trade (the relationship between the prices our exports command and the prices we pay for our imports) have improved by 10% in the last year and are expected to grow by the same amount this year.


The concern that the Reserve Bank has had is that this strong economic environment is causing growing demand which is not matched by a commensurate growth in GDP. The difference is being made up in large measure by imports and borrowings from abroad.  The Bank has pointed to constraints in supply which faced with strong demand, the Bank fears, might lead to inflationary pressures: hence the rate rise.


My own view, which I respectfully expressed at the Committee hearing with the Governor recently, is that the economy is slowing already  (the national accounts figures published this week would confirm that) and that a rate rise is superfluous today. However, as the Governor pointed out in his evidence, rate changes nowadays tend to be small and very closely monitored. It is a matter of fine tuning. The Reserve Bank is clearly concerned that the underlying strength in the economy is greater than the numbers would indicate. He acknowledged, in response to a question I asked him, that if the US dollar were to suffer a further significant decline, any rate rise would need to be reconsidered.


It is important to remember that the economy has been growing strongly for 14 years now and it would be extraordinary if, after such a long period of expansion, there were not supply constraints in some areas.

 

There are, however, important measures which need to be taken to promote export performance and improve productivity. Based on past experience, the Labor Party will resist every single one of those measures from workplace relations reform to pressuring the Labor States to invest in export related infrastructure such as ports and railways. The failure of the Labor States, especially Queensland and NSW, to maintain their export infrastructure was a matter of such concern to the Reserve Bank that it merited a lengthy discussion in the most recent Statement on Monetary Policy The Treasurer, Peter Costello, has been justifiably critical of the States' failure to use the flood of money from the GST and the property boom to invest in infrastructure. 


More promisingly, there has been $26 billion of investment in the mining sector over the last three years which will flow through into increased exports as the projects are completed. 
 

Ministerial Visits
We have had two Ministerial Visits in
Wentworth in the last few weeks. Education Minister Brendan Nelson launched the National Retail Association 2005 Rewards for Excellence Programme at Westfield Bondi Junction and Ageing Minister Julie Bishop and I visited the Vaucluse Nursing Home operated by Ralph Levy.

Electorate Office relocation

Our Electorate Office is now back in Bondi Junction. My new office is located at Level 1, 5A Bronte Road in Bondi Junction, next door to Easts Leagues Club and opposite the Myer entrance to Westfield.

Clean Up Australia Day

About 60 volunteers joined us to clean up Rose Bay on Sunday. It was a dirty job, but someone had to do it....and it was us. Thank you to all our supporters. See photos here.  

Black Spot funding

Wentworth will receive $140,000 next financial year under the Howard Government's National Black Spot Programme.

A $90,000 roundabout will be installed at the intersection of Blair Street, Plowman Street, Glenayr Avenue and Warners Avenue in North Bondi and a $50,000 route traffic calming scheme will be installed on Glenayr Avenue from Roscoe Street to Blair Street in Bondi Beach.
 
The Black Spot Programme, now in its ninth year, continues to ensure work is carried out at some of the high casualty accident areas across Australia


In recognition of its success the Federal Government has extended the Programme for a further two years from 2006-07 to 2007-08 at a cost of $90 million.

 

School funding

St Clare's College in Waverley will receive $100,000 under the Federal Government's Capital Grants Programme.

 

The grant will be used to purchase a small parcel of land adjoining the school site currently occupied by an electrical sub-station and for the relocation of the sub-station.  This will give the school much needed room to grow. 

 

It is an indication of the importance the Howard Government places on developing school infrastructure.

 

Last year the Prime Minister announced a Capital Infrastructure Programme for schools "Investing in Our Schools: A Billion Dollar Investment in our School Infrastructure" All Wentworth schools will be eligible for these grants and we have written to Principals advising them of the programme's progress. A copy of the letter is here .


Visit by Israeli President

On Monday the Israeli President, Moshe Katsav , arrived in Australia on a weeklong visit that will take him to Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.  This is proof of the excellent diplomatic relations between Australia and Israel.

 

The President spoke well at the United Israel Appeal gala community event on Tuesday night and I was honoured to meet him at a luncheon at the Lodge in Canberra on Wednesday hosted by the Prime Minister, John Howard.

 

Israeli Airforce General Amos Yadlin is the military attaché in Washington in Israel's Embassy. He spoke at the UIA event referred to above. He noted that Arafat had possessed three powerful cards in his war against Israel. One was demographic: the Palestinian population was growing much more rapidly than the Jewish population. Another was terror. The third was a veto: the ability to say no.  

 

General Yadlin said that Israel's policy was simply designed to deprive its opponents of the first two cards. The demographic card was taken by Israel withdrawing from areas where Jews were in a minority, such as Gaza. The terror card was taken by building a security barrier and thereby reducing the ability of terrorists to enter Israel

   

Tax Reform

In my last newsletter I wrote a little about the tax reform and further comments of mine have been the subject of press coverage recently.

 

It is generally (although not universally) accepted that, by international standards, Australia's income tax system has a top marginal rate which is too high and a threshold for that marginal rate which is too low. 

 

However, advocates of lower rates of income tax need to focus on how those cuts can be achieved without a massive loss of Government revenue. 

 

A major problem in tax policy is the way in which the tax base (the amount of income which is subject to tax) is eroded by deductions, avoidance, non-compliance (the black economy) and so on.

 

In an ideal world the tax base would be broad and the rate low. That is fairer to taxpayers generally because it means that the rate of tax is not dependent on a taxpayer's preparedness, for example, to engage in tax avoidance schemes. Moreover, the lower the tax rate the less incentive there is to avoid, and probably to evade, income tax.

 

There are many ways to broaden the tax base. The most obvious, but most difficult, approach is to roll back the black economy. GST has certainly reduced the cash economy but the amount of undeclared income remains immense.

 

The Australian Tax Office's Cash Economy Taskforce in 1998 valued the cash economy at between 3.5% and 13.4% of GDP. Using the 2004 GDP figure of $813 billion, that would represent between $28.4 and $106.8 billion. Using an average tax rate of 31.5% (30% average tax rate and 1.5% medicare levy), the revenue foregone through evasion ranged from $9 billion and $34 billion in 2004. This is fairly close to the estimates made by Professor Neil Warren of lost revenue between $7.6 and $29.1 billion in 2001-2002 and between $8.4 and $32.3 billion in 2003-2004.

 

Given that the entire personal income tax "take" is $100 billion, the loss from the black economy represents a very significant percentage of current income tax receipts and its recapture, even if only in part, would make it possible for all of us to pay less tax overall.

 

Another activity which not only costs reduces Government revenues by eroding the tax base and often gets taxpayers in very hot water are mass marketed tax avoidance schemes. Tax planning is a very obscure "black" art for most people and few people are in a position to question their tax advisers when they are told a particular scheme will be effective.

 

The Government has been concerned about these mass marketed schemes for some time; for both revenue and consumer protection reasons. I have suggested that we should consider requiring promoters to give a warranty that the deductions forecast will be forthcoming and that this warranty be absolute. In practice, that would mean that the only schemes which would be promoted would be ones with a very unequivocal ruling from the ATO.

 

Some people have claimed my suggestion is too draconian; after all, they say, taxpayers know they are taking a risk when they invest in a scheme. Any advice on taxation is but an opinion and opinions can differ. That point is fairly made, in my view, when dealing with conventional advice. However a mass marketed scheme is, by definition, more in the nature of the sale of a product; the fine print filled with disclaimers is rarely, if ever, read. The investors are entitled therefore to a higher level of protection. If it results in less tax avoidance, as I believe it would, so much the better.

 

Light Rail
The push for light rail in the Eastern Suburbs continues and as promised in my last newsletter I have made Gary Glazebrook's paper available here as a download.


WAYS 
WAYS Youth Service provides counselling, life education and other youth services throughout the Eastern Suburbs. It urgently needs new premises and has been in discussions with the State Government to acquire the old Bondi Police Station building for four years. WAYS has been given every encouragement in the past to believe that it could acquire the building for $800,000 and has managed to scrape that sum together from donors, both government and private.  However, now the building is being sold by public tender and is likely to realise a much higher price from a developer. I have spoken to the Premier about this and urged him to sell the building to WAYS at an affordable price. If you believe WAYS deserves a helping hand from the State Government email Premier Bob Carr at
bob.carr@www.nsw.gov.au

 

Taskforce on Care Costs
The Taskforce on Care Costs recently published some new research which received frontpage  coverage in the Sydney Morning Herald. The Report highlights the way in which the cost and availability of carers for children and other dependents inhibits employment opportunities for (mostly) women. A copy of the report is available for download on my website here. Minister Kay Patterson responding to the Report emphasised the Howard Government's increase of  funding for childcare and expanded support for carers generally.

Yours sincerely,
 

Malcolm Turnbull MP
Member for Wentworth